Lucky Lucan has been a gambler all his life, so – with horse racing in FLU jeopardy – I have made a race out of stocks…
The field has been compiled using 14 stock selectors – 10 tips that were published in the papers on the last weekend of August 2007. Stock objects selected more than once are colour coded producing the ASX CUP field (140-55) = 85 runners with scratchings.
He learns to prioritise.
He forms arrays. Why is object/string [“1”] better than [“2”] etc. This is usually expressed in his minds eye in the form
1, 2, 3, 4 [5, 6
We know from empirical observation that probability theory becomes suspect after slot/row 4 and that optimal mental capacity is ‘the bakers’ half dozen’.
This array is as old as The Oral Tradition and it is no surprise to me that it is mentioned by the experienced Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway) in his The Psychology Of Human Misjudgment.
CATCH 22: Mental confusion caused by information not arrayed in the mind and theory structures, creating sound generalizations developed in response to the question – “Why?”
Unfortunately the only order in our selectors’ CUP field is either alphabetical or random. So here’s a tip for journalists: always insist on ordered lists; they carry a whole lot more information.
We can also assume that the stocks selected for our field are already well held by these institutions and their clients. Three of the selectors of our field specialise in resources, and FAT PROPHETS has elected to select seven.
Not much consensus apart from BHP, WPL, OXR, LGL. This may be significant as the “big money has to be in the big swing”, and the money is well spread in the Resources Sector, the only question being; when will it exit?
We have a good field (85), a high vix market, so I invite you to give us your “Six of the Best” & / or comment!
AXA, AGK, BHP, BPT [ILU, QGC
Now my top pick AXA can go up or down (even money) so we can give our array indicative odds on a coin toss basis – see FIELD.
Two & Three need no introduction AGK & BHP. Four, five & six I think I can get some overs and less risk by finding Takeover Targets and go for BPT, ILU & QGC in that order.
Lucky Lucan is not a Licenced Advisor.