Whoever is to blame, the huge Environmental Disaster in the deep waters of The Gulf of Mexico has also played havoc with BP p.l.c. shareholders and the dividend income of U.K. pension funds. Deep water pressures are just so very alien to us and we need to factor a greater ‘Future Crime’ cost into our calculations.

The Yahoo Finance charts below help illustrate this story.

Stepping back the FTSE party was already over in 1999 and the broad sideways pattern (mean 5000 lvl) that we are now living is sometimes referred to as a ‘Secular Bear Market’.

But just when the FTSE looked like it had the death wobbles heading for the killing moon, it has made a last quarter recovery to 5100.

This kind of deep water market action often means a change in fortune. Given the added stimulator of a weak Sterling (currency exchange rate) I would now be betting 65% that the FTSE will continue its rise above 5000.

Declaration of interest: NULL